Here are 2011 election results, poll by poll, Canadian officials warned staff bound for Cuba to stay silent on ‘Havana syndrome’, Cars can’t crush the diabolical ironclad beetle, 2020’s latest horror, Bombardier to get less cash in amended deal with Spirit, Niagara area dog tests positive for COVID 19 but most pets are still safe, Suspects in alleged Markham illegal casino mansion linked to B.C. I did overestimate the Tories and underestimate the Liberals, however. From browsing other predictor websites, it was tied for the. Ontarians elected their first minority government in 26 years, with the Liberal Party winning a plurality of seats at 53, one shy of a majority. It seemed with the NDP polling higher in the province, that it was time for the party to win the seat back. They may have only won 2 ridings, but they did better than average in the other ridings, including the rural races. ©2018 CBC/Radio-Canada. We crunched the numbers (which arrived in 107 spreadsheets) to get poll-by-poll results for the 2011 election, showing the vote across the province in its true complexity, micro-neighbourhood by micro-neighbourhood. Perhaps, I was a little too focused on the fact that the Forum Research poll said the Tories would win here. Vote-rich region stays mostly Liberal red. This is another seat I probably would have flipped had I seen the final polls. However, it was not to be. Notice how most of those seats are in rural areas, where the Liberals lost much of their support. The NDP vote was down big time in Kenora--Rainy River where former leader Howard Hampton retired, and in Welland where Peter Kormos retired. I was off by an average of 3% per party. I was off by an average just over 2% per party. And of course, Forum Research predicted a Tory victory! The NDP did win the seat pretty handily, by 2600 votes and nearly 50% of the vote. This feature requires the Adobe Flash plugin version 8 or higher. Progressive Conservative % change (2007-2011). gained, 3.8% and 6.0% respectively. These areas are attractive to certain Green-friendly voters. The federal Conservatives have also held this seat since 2006. Click a riding for detailed information.Search your address in the box in the upper left, or click the map and drag to move around. Please read our Commenting Policy first. I had figured a similar scenario was about to occur in this election. I posted my predictions before some of the final polls came out, and that can be blamed for that. The Liberals held on to this seat by 1000 votes. Get a roundup of the most important and intriguing national stories delivered to your inbox every weekday. However, the Liberals were polling quite well in Toronto, meaning that this seat would likely be quite close. The Greens were reduced to their traditional "Green triangle", in the area northwest of Toronto. Forum Research was almost right on the money, giving the Liberals 37%, the Tories 36%, the NDP with 23% and the Greens at 3%. While I knew the Tories would win most of the rural Liberal seats across the province, I knew it was possible that there may be one or two hold outs due to personal popularity. The N.D.P. The polls for the most part were fairly accurate. Supporters celebrate Jagmeet Singh's historic victory in Peel Thursday night. A closer look at the makeup of Ontario's Legislature after the Oct. 6 election. 's Tarys Natyshak won in the surprise of the night. And word on the street seemed to agree. They actually got 38% of the vote, but the Liberals did much better than I thought, getting 39%. Their best seats came mostly in the Greater Toronto Area. But that was not the case. Until now, it seemed to me that no matter how much the NDP improves on its past performances, they always lose a seat or two in the process (e.g. The seat is held by the Conservatives in Ottawa. Want to discuss? Methodology: Elections in Ontario employ a "first-past-the-post" voting system. Liberal vote strength was concentrated in urban parts of the province. The Tories increased their vote especially in rural areas and in Northern Ontario. They also did well in Hamilton, where they won all three urban seats, and in that belt of ridings in Toronto, where they won 5 seats, and finished 2nd in the other 3. I was very close to the actual results, being an average of less than 2% per party. The Liberals got 42, and the NDP got 41%. They did gain in many ridings though, especially in urban areas like in Ottawa and Toronto. Firstly, the seat was vacated by former NDP leader Howard Hampton, meaning it was up for grabs. They lost two seats in the federal election). However, that did not happen in this provincial election, even though I was sure it would happen here in Kenora. To my credit again, it was a close race. Forum Research did I think three riding polls of Sudbury. I was off by an average of over 5% per major party, including 14% off of what the Tories got. The conventional wisdom thought that because this seat is held by the federal Tories, that their provincial counterparts would win as well. The worst areas for the Greens were in the more populist rural areas like in Northern Ontario, and in Southwestern Ontario. We crunched the numbers (which arrived in 107 spreadsheets) to get poll-by-poll results for the 2011 election, showing the vote across the province … CBC is not responsible for the content of external sites. Results map of the 2011 Ontario election by riding. Map of the most compelling races in the GTA, Energy experts and political leaders question Liberals' green energy plans, Tools will be available at the start of the advanced voting period. Overall, I was off by an average of about 3% per party. Except for Kenora--Rainy River and Timmins--James Bay, the Tories are still the third place party in Northern Ontario. The NDP map is also fairly green, as they also increased their support across the province. The weakest NDP ridings were in suburban and exurban Toronto (except for Bramalea-Gore-Malton) and in rural eastern Ontario. I was off by an average of less than 2% for each major party. Ontario’s voting again. These areas are  rural and exurban in nature, but whose agricultural traditions are different from the large farms of southwestern Ontario. Elected & Leading results last published: Oct. 7, 2011, 8:56 AM EDT 107 Seats Total All results are unofficial until final ballot counts are verified by Elections Ontario . It was still a very close race, with the Liberals edging out the Tories by just 1000 votes. My prediction showed an even closer race, with both parties at 39%. This map is mostly green, because the Tories increased their support in much of the province. There's only a few ridings where they lost support. Essex was the riding that surprised everyone on election night. Those are the ridings where they lost support. The final result did show that the polls were correct in predicting a close race. Thus the prediction of the election result in terms of the seats distribution in the provincial legislature is based on a prediction of the election result in each constituency. All rights reserved, Elected & Leading results last published: Oct. 7, 2011, 8:56 AM EDT. I did my homework, and decided I was. The Liberals went down 4.6% in the popular vote. In Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock, they benefited from having an incumbent that won in a by-election that they didn't have in 2007. casino suspects, Coronavirus vaccine by Oxford-AstraZeneca produces immune response among adults, Patty Hajdu responds to Twitter photo, says she only removes mask to eat, drink, Ontario reports 851 new coronavirus cases and 6 more deaths. Don Valley West is the darkest red, where their former leader, John Tory ran in 2007. It was also the NDP's primary target in the province, having only lost the race the race by 50 votes in 2007. SNL cold open spoofs final U.S. presidential debate between Trump, Biden, This beetle’s exterior is so strong it can get run over by a car and still survive, Canadian embassy staff warned to stay silent on ‘Havana Syndrome’, Coronavirus: Halton Region restaurants fear Ontario will stop indoor dining. However, other predictors went the other way, and predicted the Liberals would get a majority. They won in a close race by just 1400 votes, or 3% ahead of the Tories. Newfoundland and Labrador provincial election, 201... British Columbia municipal elections: preview. Tory support is generally the inverse of the Liberals, with their strengths mostly in  rural Ontario, and weaknesses in urban areas. The Green change map is perhaps the most depressing. These include areas like Kenora--Rainy River, Timmins--James Bay, Parry Sound--Muskoka, Haldimand--Norfolk, Leeds--Grenville and Renfew--Nipissing-Pembroke. Please download the latest version. Their worst seats came in more rural parts of the province, mostly in ridings they did not have incumbents. They did very well in Northern Ontario, where they won 5 ridings. I thought the NDP would win by 4%. A few months later however, Albanese won in the general election by just 500 votes. The Tories will remain the official opposition, increasing their seat count to 37, and the N.D.P. I thought Liberal MPP John Wilkinson would fit the bill (and I wasn't the only one to think this). I was certainly benefited from receiving the riding by riding results of Forum Research's mega survey done during the campaign, which I may have relied on too heavily, but wasn't too far off the mark in some races. (starting to see a trend here?) This meant that this seat was up for grabs.

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