Active roster decisions. Kenyan Drake. The next step I'll take here is to look at the least squares regression for each of these player's target numbers of the course of their 2019 season. Meanwhile, Johnson totaled 95 yards on 13 carries against the Cowboys, so he may be a solid flex play in weaker matchups if Chubb is out. WEEK 5 PPR RANKINGS:Quarterback | Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end | D/ST | Kicker. They separate the dual threats like Christian McCaffery and Austin Ekeler from work-horse backs like Sony Michel and Marlon Mack. Unlike projecting what would happen or what should happen instead these predictions are an attempt at understanding what will happen (if the NFL season is played, knock on wood). So players with weak stat-lines are likely to see the field only as often as their coaches put them in. He spent the other 11 games reliably seeing 3 to 5 throws. Therefore, it would likely be very difficult for a prediction algorithm to use player statistics to understand the risk of suspensions and holdouts. MNF INJURY UPDATES: Davante Adams | Calvin Ridley | Julio Jones. Ekeler suffered a hamstring injury in the Chargers' loss to the Bucs in Week 4 and had to leave on a cart. Teams may release players for egregious conduct and the league itself may even place them on the exempt list. It does not sound like the Chargers are expecting to have Austin Ekeler back anytime soon. After starting 2019 with a red hot 6.83 targets per game in the first 6 weeks of the season, David Johnson saw an additional 6 targets for the remainder of the year. The correlation coefficient for this line is 0.51 where a value of positive 1 indicates a strong positive correlation and a value of negative 1 indicates a strong negative correlation. This is likely the least common of the three. So Austin Ekeler was a guy that was a backup to Melvin Gordon for years and he had a great season in 2019. Hurney’s contract runs through 2020. Leonard Fournette had 4 total outlier games with 2, 3, 11, and 12 targets respectively. When asked about the status of Drake and guard Justin Pugh after the game, Cardinals coach Kliff Kingsbury didn't provide full updates but also said that he doesn't "believe it was anything major" according to ESPN's John Weinfuss. Here is the latest from around the league: Giants Trade LB Markus Golden To Cardinals, Dan Graziano and Jeremy Fowler of ESPN.com note, NFL Completes Investigation Into Titans, No Significant Discipline Coming, 49ers RB Jeff Wilson Has High Ankle Sprain, Ryquell Armstead Done For Year Due To COVID-19. Evidently, McCaffery saw a moderate increase in targets as the 2019 season progressed. So 50% of players ended up playing plus or minus 2.35 games off of the amount they were expected to. Cohen had 8 'boom' weeks where he exceeded his median targets by an average of 3.25. Let's take a look at his target numbers. When reporting that Christian McCaffery is expected to see 97 targets in 2020 the algorithm isn't necessarily assuming he would have 97 targets if he played a full 16 game season. Creating these lines of best fit for each of the 24 RBs analyzed above, the following results are found: Some thoughts I have to share based on these numbers: It is interesting that Drake had slightly better target numbers before moving to what is a better offense on paper in Arizona. Rather it believes he will get 97 targets in 2020 not knowing how many games each player will actually see the field. Chubb left the Browns' win over the Cowboys with a knee injury in the first half after he was rolled up on while in pass protection. Phillip Lindsay typically saw one more pass per game than his counterpart Royce Freeman. Christian McCaffery was undoubtedly a stud and should be considered for the #1 overall pick in 2020. There are three main reasons NFL players tend to miss games and I'm going to let machine learning account for each appropriately. GM Dave Gettleman has presided over the previous two 10-plus-loss campaigns, and some around the league have tabbed the Giants GM job as a potential opening ahead of the 2021 offseason, Dan Graziano and Jeremy Fowler of ESPN.com note. Tarik Cohen and Aaron Jones were somewhat of opposites despite being targeted 5.5 and 5 times respectively each week. Both David Johnson and Chris Thompson saw their targets severely hampered by injury. Drake (chest) left the Cardinals' loss to the Panthers in the fourth quarter and didn't return. The last step I'll take is to make some predictions for the upcoming season. Chubb owners will want to try to scoop Johnson off the waiver wire, as he may be one of the few readily available RB alternatives on the waiver wire. For example, a running-back who had 10 carries last season is probably not going to be starting and is unlikely to play many games. A running-back who had 200 carries is probably a starting player who gets decent usage and should be expected to play close to 16 games next year. Alvin Kamara typically received 1.5 more targets on gameday than Austin Ekeler. UPDATE 1: Chubb has been placed on IR by the Browns with an MCL sprain, per ESPN's Adam Schefter. Jones had 7 'bust' weeks in which he averaged 3.86 fewer targets than his own median. WEEK 5 STANDARD RANKINGS:Quarterback | Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end | D/ST | Kicker. Austin Ekeler injury update. According to Yahoo Sports, Austin Ekeler was the 34th ranked running back in fantasy football before the season began. In his stead, Kareem Hunt will operate as Cleveland's lead back with D'Ernest Johnson mixing in as the top complement to him. Miles Sanders decent rookie numbers and strong target increase are good arguments for a top RB spot in 2020. Not 6 targets per game, just 6 targets total. So players with weak stat-lines are likely to see the field only as often as their coaches put them in. Dalvin Cook has a solid floor of 2 targets per game. In addition, Boston Scott may share a larger workload in 2020. Carson may be a safer back to draft in 2020 with Kareem Hunt potentially taking more targets in Cleveland. Here are some things that come to mind looking at the top 12 RBs. Each projection represents the number of fantasy points a given player is expected to actually total in 2020. If you aren't familiar with how to read a box-plot here is an explanation using Austin Ekeler's 2019 season as an example. Kelley has performed well to start the season, racking up 258 scrimmage yards and a TD as Ekeler's top backup to start the season. The next topic I'd like to examine is whether a player's risk of missing games in the upcoming season can be determined by looking at their stats from prior seasons. Injury. Younghoe Koo might be inclined to say no. Jaylen Samuels saw 40 of his 57 season targets in just 5 games. Applying the same methodology towards the 2020 season here are the projections. In fact, it doesn't even assume that each player will play a full season. Jimmy Garoppolo’s Future With 49ers In Doubt? However both players saw fewer throws as the season progressed. He may be primed for big season in 2020 on Arizona's young offense. The Chargers missed on landing Tom Brady, leaving them with some intriguing but flawed backup plans at quarterback. Starters who perform poorly … With him playing 15 games, that's over a quarter of his season. The 2020 NFL season hasn't been a kind one from an injury standpoint, and as usual, running backs have fallen prey to the injury bug. The Giants have never lost double-digit games in four straight seasons. I'll compare these numbers to how many games each player actually did play in 2019. Here is how well the 2019 retroactive predictions performed: To actually make sense of this data I'm going to break it up into RB/WR/TE and also remove players that aren't 'fantasy relevant'.

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