The national recovery plan will support the recovery, as in other countries. Increase Your Power Audience Financing side - euro area and EU 34 I.2.3. The Autumn 2020 Economic Forecast projects that the euro area economy will contract by 7.8% in 2020 before growing 4.2% in 2021 and 3% in 2022. EU economic output will not return to pre-pandemic levels by 2022. The forecast is based on the usual set of technical assumptions concerning exchange rates, interest rates and commodity prices, with a cut-off date of 22 October 2020. Uncertainties and risks surrounding the Autumn 2020 Economic Forecast remain exceptionally large. This reflects the spread of the virus, the stringency of public health measures taken to contain it, the sectoral composition of national economies and the strength of national policy responses. Full document: Autumn 2020 Economic Forecast. The Autumn 2020 Economic Forecast projects that the euro area economy will contract by 7.8% in 2020 before growing 4.2% in 2021 and 3% in 2022. However, after their significant tightening in the fourth quarter of 2020, the stringency of the measures is expected to gradually ease in 2021. ifo Economic Forecast Autumn 2020: German Economy Still on Course for Recovery Given the assumed pace of recovery, GDP will not reach its pre-crisis level until the fourth quarter of 2021. This reflects the expected phasing out of emergency support measures in the course of 2021 as the economic situation improves. The Commission publishes a full set of macroeconomic forecasts for the EU and its Member States in spring (May) and autumn (November) and publishes interim forecasts updating GDP and inflation figures in winter (February) and summer (July). Output in both the euro area and the EU is not expected to recover its pre-pandemic level in 2022. This is a summary of the 2020 autumn forecast for Switzerland, released by the KOF Swiss Economic Institute at ETH Zurich on 22 October 2020, with a forecast horizon up to the end of 2022. Rise in unemployment contained compared to drop in economic activity. wiiw Economic Forecast for Eastern Europe (Autumn 2020) - YouTube. The forecasts for Slovenia’s main trading partners for this year have improved somewhat since June. The high level of stringency is set to persist over the first quarter of 2021, and the rebound next year is set to be partial, at 5.8%. What is the Technical Support Instrument? The average annual growth rate in the coming year will then be 5.1 percent. I now call again on the European Parliament and Council to wrap up negotiations quickly for money to start flowing in 2021 so that we can invest, reform and rebuild together.”, Paolo Gentiloni, Commissioner for Economy, said: “After the deepest recession in EU history in the first half of this year and a very strong upswing in the summer, Europe’s rebound has been interrupted due to the resurgence in COVID-19 cases. The detailed report comes out quarterly, and it represents the forecast for the next couple of years regarding the economic evolution of the EU member states. Compared to the Summer 2020 Economic Forecast, growth projections for both the euro area and the EU are slightly higher for 2020 and lower for 2021. The forecast projects that the EU economy will contract by 7.4% in 2020 before recovering with growth of 4.1% in … The European Semester - Also by country. These forecasts are produced by the Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN). Uncertainties and risks surrounding the Autumn 2020 Economic Forecast remain exceptionally large. The European Commission published on 5 November 2020 its Autumn economic forecast for the European Union (EU) and the Eurozone. First, public health measures are assumed to remain in force to some degree throughout the forecast horizon. © The Economic and Social Research Institute, Whitaker Square, Sir John Rogerson ’s Quay, Dublin 2. Job losses and the rise in unemployment have put severe strains on the livelihoods of many Europeans. Composition of growth - Euro area 37 I.2.4. There is also a risk that the scars left by the pandemic on the economy – such as bankruptcies, long-term unemployment and supply disruptions – could be deeper and farther reaching. The increase in government deficits is expected to be very significant across the EU this year as social spending rises and tax revenues fall, both as a result of the exceptional policy actions designed to support the economy and the effect of automatic stabilisers. Chapter 2 sets out our forecasts for the economy over a five year horizon. The Autumn 2020 Economic Forecast projects that the euro area economy will contract by 7.8% in 2020 before growing 4.2% in 2021 and 3% in 2022. Shopping. The COVID-19 pandemic caused an economic crisis unique in its severity. A subscription to the . The economic impact of the pandemic has differed widely across the EU and the same is true of recovery prospects. EU Autumn 2020 Economic Forecast - Includes forecast by country. Weak demand, labour market slack and a strong euro exchange rate will exert downward pressure on prices. Inflation in the euro area, as measured by the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is forecast to average 0.3% in 2020, before rising to 1.1% in 2021 and 1.3% in 2022, as oil prices stabilise. The epidemiological situation means that growth projections over the forecast horizon are subject to an extremely high degree of uncertainty and risks. Unemployment is set to continue rising in 2021 as Member States phase out emergency support measures and new people enter the labour market, but should improve in 2022 as the economy continues to recover. In the current context of very high uncertainty, national economic and fiscal policies must remain supportive, while NextGenerationEU must be finalised this year and effectively rolled out in the first half of 2021.”, A high degree of uncertainty with downside risks to the outlook. We will work together to chart the course to recovery, using every tool at our disposal. Economic activity in Europe suffered a severe shock in the first half of the year and rebounded strongly in the third quarter as containment measures were gradually lifted. The Autumn 2020 Economic Forecast projects that the euro area economy will contract by 7.8 % in 2020 before growing 4.2 % in 2021 and 3 % in 2022. In the current context of very high uncertainty, national economic and fiscal policies must remain supportive, while NextGenerationEU must be finalised this year and effectively rolled out in the first half of 2021.”, A high degree of uncertainty with downside risks to the outlook. This is for forecasting purposes only and reflects no anticipation nor prediction as regards the outcome of the negotiations between the EU and the UK on their future relationship. Tap to unmute. These are expected to weigh on economic activity and sentiment in the short run, with negative effects on consumption and investment, though to a lesser extent than in the spring, as the approach so far has been more targeted. This reflects the spread of the virus, the stringency of public health measures taken to contain it, the sectoral composition of national economies and the strength of national policy responses. The unemployment rate in the EU is forecast to rise from 6.7% in 2019 to 7.7% in 2020 and 8.6% in 2021, before declining to 8.0% in 2022. I now call again on the European Parliament and Council to wrap up negotiations quickly for money to start flowing in 2021 so that we can invest, reform and rebuild together.”, Paolo Gentiloni, Commissioner for Economy, said: “After the deepest recession in EU history in the first half of this year and a very strong upswing in the summer, Europe's rebound has been interrupted due to the resurgence in COVID-19 cases. It is also assumed that the economic impact of a given level of restrictions will diminish over time as the health system and economic agents adapt to the coronavirus environment. The European economy is expanding and is predicted to continue its growth well into 2020 and 2021. Last Thursday, the European Commission released the EU Economic Forecast for the autumn of 2020. We agreed a landmark recovery package, NextGenerationEU – with the Recovery and Resilience Facility at its heart – to provide massive support to worst-hit regions and sectors. However, the resurgence of the pandemic in recent weeks is resulting in disruptions as national authorities introduce new public health measures to limit its spread. Weak demand, labour market slack and a strong euro exchange rate will exert downward pressure on prices. The forecast projects that the EU economy will contract by 7.4% in 2020 before recovering with growth of 4.1% in 2021 and 3% in 2022. The economic impact of the pandemic has differed widely across the EU and the same is true of recovery prospects. Our goal is your target in a future visionary way to create a synergy business bridge between SME’s companies and R&D laboratories to merge together in revolutionary and innovation projects. The forecast projects that the EU economy will contract by 7.4% in 2020 before recovering with growth of 4.1% in 2021 and 3% in 2022. A steep fall in energy prices pushed headline inflation into negative territory in August and September. European Economic Forecast. wiiw Economic Forecast for Eastern Europe (Autumn 2020) Watch later. Draft completed on 28 September 2020 . Further information: The forecast shows that economic activity across Europe suffered a severe shock in the first half of the year and rebounded strongly in the third quarter as containment measures were gradually lifted. Inflation outlook - euro area and EU 51 The principal risk stems from a worsening of the pandemic, requiring more stringent public health measures and leading to a more severe and longer lasting impact on the economy. A trade agreement between the EU and the UK would also have a positive impact on the EU economy from 2021 compared to the forecast baseline of the UK and EU trading based on WTO Most Favoured Nation (MFN) rules. Are you looking to finance your project, product or idea? Economic rebound interrupted: Key features of the Commission’s Autumn 2020 forecast Economic rebound interrupted as containment measures intensify. Graphene as a new hardware security device, A new law of physics opens the door to creating more reliable and functional haptic and robotic devices, Haptic technology empowered by LED light signals, Strategic interactions between self-interested private energy system investors, SECON 2021 – International Security Exhibition, ’Liquid window’ most suitable for office buildings, 5th Annual Automotive Thermal Management Online Conference. Mirroring the spike in deficits, the forecast projects the aggregate euro area debt-to-GDP ratio will increase from 85.9% of GDP in 2019 to 101.7% in 2020, 102.3% in 2021 and 102.6% in 2022. Author. The epidemiological situation means that growth projections over the forecast horizon are subject to an extremely high degree of uncertainty and risks. The European Commission’s next forecast will be an update of GDP and inflation projections in the Winter 2021 Economic Forecast, which is expected to be presented in February 2021. The forecast projects that the EU economy will contract by 7.4% in 2020 before recovering with growth of 4.1% in 2021 and 3% in 2022. Institutional Paper 136. The possibility of financial market stress is another downside risk. Summer Forecast of Economic Trends 2020 The COVID-19 epidemic, in combination with stringent health … First published on. This has motivated a scenario analysis for two alternative paths of the pandemic evolution – a more benign one and a downside one – and its economic impact. After the rebound in the third quarter, GDP is expected to drop again in the fourth quarter due to the new restrictions. Compared to the Summer 2020 Economic Forecast, growth projections for both the euro area and the EU are slightly higher for 2020 … Core inflation, which includes all items except energy and unprocessed food, also fell substantially over the summer due to lower demand for services, especially tourism-related services and industrial goods. In France, the economy is forecast to contract by 9.4% in 2020. Identification. ’’Spending the Time Researching Your Industry, your Issues, and Your audience’’. The forecast projects the aggregate government deficit of the euro area to increase from 0.6% of GDP in 2019 to around 8.8% in 2020, before decreasing to 6.4% in 2021 and 4.7% in 2022. This is because the forecast could only partially incorporate the likely benefits of these initiatives, as the information available at this stage on national plans is still limited. The possibility of financial market stress is another downside risk. If … Growth will return in 2021 but it will be two years until the European economy comes close to regaining its pre-pandemic level. The forecast projects that the EU economy will contract by 7.4% in 2020 before recovering with growth of 4.1 % in 2021 and 3 % in 2022. Key figures of 2021 Draft Budgetary Plans. We will work together to chart the course to recovery, using every tool at our disposal. 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